Regardless of how many games the 43-31 Phoenix Suns have lost against lesser and shorthanded opponents, they continue to enjoy the luxury of dictating their own fate.
A position in the play-in tournament becomes increasingly likely by the day. The fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers begin Sunday with 27 losses and nine games remaining. The red-hot Dallas Mavericks are tied for sixth, looking to win their seventh straight game on Sunday to improve to 45-29 with a light schedule. Both those squads appear to be unstoppable.
Phoenix’s 45-29 record matches that of the New Orleans Pelicans, whom they will face on Monday and again the following Sunday. As a result, if Atlanta beats New Orleans in both, it will be even on losses, with the wins providing the tiebreaker. To catch the Pelicans, the Suns would still need to win at least three of the remaining six games, and most likely four or five.
That appears to be far too much to ask of the Suns right now, as evidenced by their recent performance.
They followed up their embarrassing performance on national television in Milwaukee on March 17 with two unconvincing victories in the Valley over two Eastern Conference foes missing their best players before producing a formulaic and straightforward win in San Antonio before losing a shocker to the same Spurs two days later, albeit without Victor Wembanyama. The carousel continued spinning with a tremendous away win against the Denver Nuggets, one of the Suns’ best of the season, before unraveling in the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder when genuine resilience was required.
However, in comparison to that Denver triumph, the Suns’ best performance came in New Orleans on January 19.
Devin Booker led Phoenix with 52 points, Kevin Durant added 26 more, and Bradley Beal delivered an excellent all-around performance. Beal played a role as the initial defender on Zion Williamson, whom the Suns kept under control despite the fact that they lack a massive wing with Williamson’s physical dimensions. The Pelicans defense had few answers for a Suns offense that had 32 assists, eight turnovers, and shot 15-of-41 (36.6%) from three-point range.
Since then, New Orleans has become a different squad.
Ten days after that loss, it fell to 26-21 on the season. It’s been 19-8 since. The Pelicans rank 11th in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating during the last 28 games, beginning with January 31.
Adding a top-five defense to their offensive potency creates a club that no one wants to face in the playoffs.
The Athletic’s Mo Dakhil detailed how much of this can be linked to Williamson and the dramatic changes that have occurred since his poor performance during the midseason tournament sparked a 48-hour news cycle regarding his career status. Williamson quietly reached a new career high in games played (63), and while he isn’t posting All-NBA statistics or a stat line like his second season that suggests he’s a superstar, this is the most he’s contributed to winning as an NBA player.
As Dakhil explains in the post, it is really about Williamson’s devotion. His awful off-ball patterns were concerning, and his overall effort was often questionable. If the weak links are removed, New Orleans possesses the personnel to strangle teams, as well as one of the top wing-defense groupings in basketball. Herb Jones should have been All-Defense last year and will be again this year. Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall are pests on their own. Williamson’s involvement automatically improves the trio.
Williamson leads the offensive charge once more. The Pelicans are employing him more as a ball-handler who initiates possessions, which The Old Man & The Three Things discussed back in late February. JJ Redick demonstrated how this improves everything, especially New Orleans’ space. Williamson has nine games with nine or more assists in his career, seven of which came in the calendar year 2024. It’s the greatest way to use Williamson considering his lack of shooting ability and how the constant pressure on the defense optimizes his usefulness.
In the first three months of the calendar year 2024, C.J. McCollum has attempted 8.3 triples per game and shot 40.8%. Murphy is the other high-volume man, averaging eight per night and 35.8%. The rest of the supporting cast is knocking them down enough to prevent a weak link. That’s Jones (3.9, 49%), Jose Alvarado (3.7, 36.1%), Jordan Hawkins (3.6, 37%), and Marshall (2.2, 37.8%). That’s a lot of shooting capable of hammering defenders, even as Brandon Ingram (left knee bone contusion) recovers and poses a different type of threat.
Both sides of the floor provide a fair litmus test for what has plagued the Suns this season. If they can execute, they may have found some gas in the tank for a late-game push for a playoff spot.
New Orleans’ defense will undoubtedly seek to limit the 41 3-point attempts from mid-January. Phoenix is 16-9 when it meets the NBA average of 35 attempts this season. This contributed to the Suns’ 32 assists, and when they hit that threshold, they’ll be 14-1.
In terms of the Pelicans attack, Phoenix’s defense has struggled to rotate out to shooters during the last two months. A proper defensive rotation as a team involving various efforts after assisting in a certain direction is uncommon. Williamson will make this happen all evening.
Good luck finding your way out of the pitch-black tunnel that is the Suns’ season right now. Perhaps after Monday, there will be enough light to guide us. Or we’ll continue to fumble our way to the play-in event.