‘And the X-factor for the Suns versus the Timberwolves is…’ – Expert points out key man for Phoenix Suns to face Timberwolves

The postseason starts in only two days. Following their victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves in game 82 of the season, the Phoenix Suns were given a week off before beginning their playoff run. Phoenix will meet a familiar rival, having played Minnesota twice in the final nine days of the regular season. What was the result? The Suns improved to 2-0 and completed a regular season sweep of the Timberwolves.

During that week off, both sides were undoubtedly preparing and researching their offensive plan against a familiar opponent. Coaches undoubtedly spent countless hours examining game footage, reviewing ideal matchups, and planning how to best deploy their offense and defense in the first round.

Each series requires an X-factor. It is up to you to define that, as the phrase refers to a subjective opinion on who has the ability to influence the series.

How many times have we seen a player like Andre Iguodala win a title for his team? I enjoy viewing an X-factor through that viewpoint. Your stars are yours. In general, you cannot win a series if they are not performing to their full potential. They are the foundation of your team; if they are off, cracks appear and the foundation crumbles.

The supplementary players will decide the fate of this series. We saw that in the previous two postseasons when secondary guys lost their confidence and ability to score. Remember how Torrey Craig shot 14.3% from three against the Nuggets last season? What about Mikal Bridges’ disappearing act versus the Mavericks the previous season?

For this series, I’m focusing on two factors. Phoenix must field two players in order to defeat the Timberwolves, who are seeded third. Not unexpectedly, they are the only two starters who are not members of the Big Three.

Jusuf Nurkic

Big Nurk Daddy had an outstanding season for Phoenix. He absolutely exceeded my expectations, both in terms of the number of games played and the attitude with which he played them. When he arrived via trade this past September, much of the talk was about him being an emotional player who hung his head when things didn’t go as planned. When you consider his injury history and lack of availability, many people wonder if signing him was the best decision for the Suns.

I believe he proved the critics wrong, even though they will never accept it. He led the Suns in games played this season (76), averaging 10.9 points and 11.0 rebounds. He also set a career high in assists (4.0) and added 1.1 blocks. He was an excellent addition, particularly at $16.9 million per year.

It is critical in this series that Nurkic is prolific. The Timberwolves are a large team. Rudy Colbert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid form a trio of large bodies who excel in their jobs. In contrast, the Suns are lengthy but not particularly large. They are not particularly deep in the center position.

Drew Eubanks is hotter and colder than the weather forecast in Colorado. Thaddeus Young, who can contribute some enthusiasm, is nearly 36 years old and hasn’t had much of a chance to prove how effective he can be with Phoenix, despite standing 6’8″.

We saw it this past Sunday against Minnesota, where their game plan in the third quarter was to pound the interior with Rudy Gobert. What was the result? Nurkic got into foul trouble, rebounds dried up when he went to the bench, and Minnesota embarked on a run. Fortunately, the Suns were able to sustain their attempted comeback, but Minnesota head coach Chris Finch saw that footage and will likely use similar plan throughout the series.

Nurkic must play intelligently and not pick up more than he needs to. One factor working against him is that he has committed the most fouls in the NBA this season with 254.

If Nurkic goes into foul trouble, Frank Vogel has one strategy available to him: the small-ball technique. Using Kevin Durant as your center will undoubtedly create offensive opportunities for Phoenix. Durant can move Rudy out of the paint and into the perimeter, giving the rest of the squad free run at the cylinder. The challenge: defending Gobert. Minnesota will undoubtedly try to pound Durant inside, capitalizing on his small stature and maybe getting him in trouble.

Oh, a chess match, indeed.

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen is the series’ secondary X-factor. The Suns have experienced one of the best three-point shooting seasons in franchise history. Not bad for a player that everyone thought was shady and untrustworthy.

Grayson has to maintain his confident and effective shooting from outside the arc in this series. As we have seen throughout the season, he will get wide-open looks from deep. It is the outcome of having such outstanding top-tier talent on the court alongside him. Their gravity draws defenders away from Allan, leaving him open to shoot. His rapid trigger and precision have proven devastating for Phoenix this season.

He needs to shoot at least five three-pointers every game. Why? Because in the 45 games he played, the Suns went 28-17. I like the odds. I enjoy having him shoot.

Allen faces the same issue as Torrey Craig, Cameron Payne, and Josh Okogie. Players who were effective during the regular season became black holes when the playoffs approached. Their squad needed them to score, but all they offered was empty possessions.

GA has a career postseason three-point shooting percentage of 40.6%, and we hope that trend continues this season with the Suns.

Despite what you may believe after watching them face the Suns this season, the Timberwolves are the top defensive team in the NBA. Is Phoenix a tough match for them? After dropping three games to the Suns this season, I’m sure anyone would answer “yes”. However, this does not diminish their capacity to be a large, long, passing-lane clogging team. And if we’ve learned anything from the Suns this season, they prefer to toss the ball away in those passing lanes, don’t they?

The X-factors of Nurk and GA might decide a game or two in the series. That is exactly what Phoenix needs. The Suns have a shot if Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all show up and play as well as we know they can.